Australians are losing faith in the United States. For decades, the bond between Canberra and Washington was considered an absolute certainty in global politics. That certainty has just evaporated.
According to the 2026 Lowy Institute Poll, public trust in the US has plummeted to an all-time low of 31%. Just four years ago, that number sat comfortably at 65%. In a staggering shift, the massive 53-point trust advantage the US held over China in 2022 has shrunk to a mere three points. For the first time in the history of the survey, a majority of Australians—51%—now believe the nation's relationship with China is more important than its ties with America.
This isn't a temporary dip or minor statistical noise. It is a fundamental rewiring of how Australians view their place in the world.
The Trump factor is breaking the bond
You can't talk about this drop without looking directly at the White House. Donald Trump is incredibly unpopular down under, and his return to power has triggered widespread anxiety across the Australian electorate.
Only 21% of Australians express confidence in Trump to do the right thing in world affairs. That is the lowest level of confidence recorded for any American leader in the 22-year history of the Lowy poll. Six in ten Australians say they have no confidence at all in him.
The data shows exactly what is driving this anxiety.
- The economic pain of tariffs: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently slammed proposed US tariffs on Australian exports, calling them "not the act of a friend." Washington's aggressive trade penalties have deeply alienated the local business community.
- Middle East entanglements: The survey started days after joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran began. Australians are exhausted by the economic and human toll of these conflicts. A follow-up poll in May found that eight in ten Australians explicitly disapprove of Trump’s handling of the military campaign.
- A desire for distance: Just over half of the population now believes Australia should actively distance itself from the US under the current administration.
The resentment is personal, political, and financial. When Washington levies economic penalties on its closest allies while dragging the globe into volatile military conflicts, everyday Australians feel the pinch at the petrol pump and the supermarket checkout.
Thawing out the relationship with Beijing
While faith in Washington plummets, Australia's relationship with Beijing is experiencing a quiet, pragmatic resurgence. Trust in China to act responsibly has risen to 28%, climbing eight points over the last year alone.
This change is driven by pure economic reality. China buys massive quantities of Australian iron ore, coal, and wine. Following years of diplomatic deep-freeze and trade sanctions, the Albanese government has spent the last year stabilizing the relationship. The public has noticed, and they approve.
More than half of the country now expects China to be the undisputed dominant global power within the next ten years. Less than a third believe the US will hold onto that crown.
Don't mistake this pragmatic shift for blind adoration, though. Xi Jinping’s personal trust rating sits at a low 20%. Australians aren't naive about Beijing’s military buildup or its ambitions in the Pacific. They simply recognize that economic survival requires a stable partnership with their largest trading partner, especially when Washington looks increasingly unreliable.
Security guarantees and the AUKUS paradox
Here is the twist that confounds foreign policy purists. Even as trust in the US political leadership hits rock bottom, Australians are refusing to abandon their defense commitments.
Nearly three-quarters of the population still state that the US alliance is vital for Australia’s security. Furthermore, two-thirds of respondents continue to back the controversial AUKUS pact to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. Even more surprising is the growing appetite for domestic defense capabilities: 39% of Australians now favor acquiring nuclear weapons in the future, up three points from 2022.
This creates a fascinating paradox. Australians don't trust Trump, they don't like American foreign policy, and they want closer business ties with China. Yet, they are terrified of the increasingly disorderly international landscape. A record 53% of respondents state they feel unsafe in the world right now—a number worse than during the peak of the 2020 pandemic.
They are holding onto the US defense alliance not out of shared values or romantic notions of mateship, but out of raw survival instinct.
Navigating the new reality
If you are trying to make sense of where Australian foreign policy goes from here, look at the other countries dominating the poll.
For the sixth consecutive year, Japan is Australia’s most trusted global power at 89%. Germany follows at 83%, and the UK stands at 81%. This tells us that Australians still crave stability, democratic values, and reliable partnerships. They are simply tired of the chaos radiating from Washington.
For businesses and policymakers alike, the path forward requires a delicate balancing act. You cannot ignore a public where 51% value the Chinese relationship above the American one. Expect Canberra to keep quiet on Washington's culture wars, push back hard against American protectionist tariffs, and continue quietly rebuilding export pipelines into Asia. The era of blind faith in the ANZUS alliance is officially over.
